This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and I look forward to chasing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $30 decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I pile a struggle in cash games I want no less than 100 total points. Ideally much more like 150 or even more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we have seen his struggles even complete over 200 DK points. He is the perfect design for accruing DraftKings points and if we utilize Edson as well, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that day. This is how I’ll be starting my money lineup and I shall work out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we don’t need 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid the exact same in a 10-man double-up, so I’m not shooting for first and I would rather play it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP play of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This isn’t a sneaky play at all but Barzola ought to be a terrific play when he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That’s exactly what we want on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he can stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to win somebody $30k. I really do expect him to be chalky this week, but he has a lot of scoring potential I’d like to fade the chalk. I will probably be in line with the area on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog drama of this week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I enjoy Waterson here since she’s the fighter who will be searching for takedowns in this particular fight. I believe she can find a few and she may be able to lock up a entry if that is how it is. That’s her ceiling in this fight, but I like her more for money games due to her floor. I don’t see KK completing Waterson, so I think we get three full rounds of scoring out of her. Even in a loss she could put up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I will use her in GPPs as well, but I don’t think she submits KK. I’d guess she places up around ~80 DK points in a decision win when she is ready to receive the victory.
Fade of the week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my vulnerability out on the majority of the favorites this week in GPPs but Mazo is the only I’m interested at least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary would be by getting a second head kick KO. I really don’t think that’s quite probable at all and I feel a decision win is most likely for her. I really don’t see her going for almost any takedowns or obtaining many/any knockdowns, so I don’t see the way she scores tremendously in a decision triumph. I have zero lineups with Mazo this week and if I had been making 100 lineups I’d still probably full fade her. Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, but she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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