Arquivos diários: 10 de setembro de 2019

UFC 214 BETTING CHEAT SHEET: ODDS ANALYSIS AND PREVIEW

While it won’t be the largest battle sports event of the summer, UFC 214 is certainly the biggest MMA event of the entire year. On top of the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two additional title bouts, contenders and entertaining battles throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a peek at where the gambling odds have moved for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were published and he provides his ideas on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favored the first time these two fought and a few naively expected the lineup could be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal problems, run-in with USADA and layoff has not had the impact anticipated on the line. It is hard to blame bettors either, Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their first meeting, and Jones won every component of that first fight. Expect something similar – if not dominant – this time around.
Irrespective of how badly he takes his groundwork, Jones is the kind of fighter that rises to the occasion like others. He, this is the ultimate event. Cormier is his main rival and he has the chance to regain the belt he never dropped against him. That combination will lead to a tremendous performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance at the division.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Much like the main event, this line has not seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that is not hard to believe. There’s a contingent of individuals who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia with the first punch he throws. They could very well be right. The opposing side of the coin is made up of those who believe that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and only dominate with his grappling. They are right as well. Woodley’s tendency to back himself against the cage and perform counter-puncher is going to be his demise here. Maia is becoming so good at going into the clinch if not under stress he ought to be able to create Woodley miss after. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that’s a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s ability to initiate Jiu-Jitsu exchanges without hitting traditional takedowns is next to none (he’s perfected the single leg to rear take) and Woodley being the kind of man who likes to explode out of places will only hurt him once that happens. It is kind of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an extra buck (+275 at Thursday morning), since Woodley will not be able to endure 25 moments of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wishes to. The other option is probably a quick Woodley KO (+350 for your champ at Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This fight being bettable is dependent on what kind of bettor you are. If you have no difficulty throwing a massive line in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are nearly sure things. If that is not really your style, neither will be placing nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a drama is based on Evinger’s strength. She’s taken damage in many of her struggles and persevered and she probably won’t come back to beat Cyborg in this one after a rough beginning, there is an outside shot she can survive five minutes. However, even the costs for”Fight Starts Round two” and Cyborg Round two have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450, respectively), making them less attractive even to someone who is always on the search for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It is a shame this fight is occurring after both men have seemingly passed their peak concerning durability, since a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best are a thing to behold. This fight will come down to distance direction and in-fight decisions. Lawler wants to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outdoors. The difficulty for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get inside and at the point, anticipate Cerrone to be much too willing to oblige him that the war he is searching for. While that will give us the type of fight we want to see, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.

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MMA ODDS AND ENDS FOR FRIDAY: BIG NAMES RUMORED FOR TUF 18

Veteran MMA journalist Dave Meltzer of Wrestling Observer recently published the rumored list of female bantamweight fighters that are set to look on season 18 of”The Ultimate Fighter,” which has been filmed at the upcoming few months and which will air this fall. Here would be the rumored fighters: Marcia Allen Shayna Baszler Revelina Berto Jessamyn Duke Ashlee Evans-Smith Tonya Evinger Tara LaRosa Valerie Letourneau Bethany Marshall Lia Mata’afa Gina Mazany Katie Merrill Roxanne Modafferi Peggy Morgan Julianna Pen Raquel Pennington Colleen Schneider Again, this listing is no set in stone but All These women tried out to the show in Las Vegas and there is definitely some talent here. One of the most obvious fighters are Shayna Baszler, Tonya Evinger, Jessamyn Duke, Tara LaRosa and Roxanne Modaferri, all of whom are veterans of the MMA of women. It’s likely they will be leaked out in the forthcoming weeks and weeks although there has been no record. Both the men and women will be trained by UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey and No. 1 rival Cat Zingano, who will face off against each other this December. UFC on FX 8 Gets Reshuffling The UFC on FX 8 card continued to undergo modifications, and it was reported today by that middleweight Costa Philippou is from his bout against Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza with a cut and in his location measures Chris Camozzi, that was set to fight Rafael”Sapo” Natal. Natal will fight with UFC newcomer Joao Zeferino instead. Camozzi is currently riding a four-fight win series but”Jacare” is a massive step up in competition and Camozzi will probably open as a significant underdog. My gut tells me Souza opens around -300, together with all the comeback on Camozzi being +250, but it is possible the public stakes on Camozzi because they did in his last outing against Nick Ring in UFC 154 (plus they were right in doing this ). But expect the sharp actions to come in on”Jacare,” who has a large number of advantages in this particular bout, not that of least is his A-plus ground match. In terms of Natal vs. Zeferino, an individual can expect Natal to open around -250 or even greater. It’ll be a weak line because Zeferino is a bit of an unknown, but still, this is a struggle that Natal must roll in, at least if it is the Natal that has been hot as of late. The Camozzi vs. Souza bout will take the co-main event slot at UFC on FX 8, while Natal vs. Zeferino opens up the evening’s most important card. The main event, of course, is a five-round middleweight bout between former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort and Strikeforce middleweight champion Luke Rockhold.
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MMA ODDS AND ENDS FOR TUESDAY: JESSICA EYE NEXT FOR VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO

We only saw the UFC men’s flyweight title defended by Henry Cejudo with his TKO win over TJ Dillashaw within last weekend at UFC on ESPN+ 1, and it loooks as the women’s flyweight name will be defended soon, too.
According to UFC president Dana White, who spoke to reporters following the UFC’s introduction event on ESPN in Brooklyn, New York, the world’s top MMA organization is set to provide Jessica Eye another title shot at 125lbs. She will take on UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko for the title later this season, though White didn’t state when the belt could be defended. Together with the UFC running three or four cards a month up until June, the advertising had a lot of holes to fill and Shevchenko vs. Eye makes sense as a principal event for a Fight Night card on ESPN+, or perhaps even as a co-main event for a pay-per-view.
White told reporters concerning Eye getting the next title shot after somebody asked him when Joanne Calderwood — who predicted Eye out after her decision win over Ariane Lipski — was in line to fight for the name. There were rumors Eye was going to be following for Shevchenko as they both fought on the exact same UFC 231 cardand we understand that’s indeed the case.
Eye (14-6, 1 NC) has saved her career by making the move down to flyweight. After fighting a 1-5, 1 NC record for a bantamweight, Eye is now 3-0 in 125lbs. She has conquered Kalindra Faria, Jessica-Rose Clark and Katlyn Chookagian in her last three outings in order to acquire the title shot in the UFC’s new division. The fact she’s gone the distance in nine of her 10 UFC struggles is concerning going up against a finisher such as Shevchenko who probably needs to be halted so as to beat, but Eye has definitely looked enhanced at flyweight and her getting the next title shot is logical.
Shevchenko (16-3) needed a 4-2 record for a bantamweight in the UFC, but her two losses came against champion Amanda Nunes and she needed to make a move down in weight in order to find another title shot. Moving down to 125lbs has been demonstrated to be a great move for her since she destroyed Priscila Cachoeira in her UFC flyweight introduction to get a title shot, then beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk in UFC 231 to maintain the vacant belt. Outside of the Nunes fights, Shevchenko has appeared unstoppable from the Octagon, and it is difficult to see anyone at 125lbs giving her much of a struggle when she’s so far beyond everybody in the division so far as skill goes.
Clearly this struggle isn’t 100 percent official yet, but it seems likely to be formally announced soon, and once it does the oddsmakers shouldn’t have much trouble lining the fight. I’m fully expecting Shevchenko for a massive favorite yet again, starting at least about -500 and possibly being steamed even greater. Shevchenko always receives an enormous amount of support from bettors while Eye traditionally doesnt get much of any, so this isn’t a hard fight to line. As great as Eye has appeared in her latest couple of fights since falling down from bantamweight, it’s difficult to see that her being the boxer to shoot Shevchenko’s belt.
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TIM MEANS VS. NIKO PRICE ADDED TO UFC WICHITA

UFC Wichita (UFC Fight Night 146) takes place Saturday, March 9 at Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

The card previously was revealed to be headlined by heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos, and over the weekend a few new preliminary spells were added to the card, via ESPN. The new bouts are listed below, along with my first reactions to these, in the modern edition of MMA odds and ends.
Tim Means vs. Niko Price, UFC Fight Night 146
An exciting welterweight matchup between Tim Means and Niko Price is place for UFC Fight Night 146. Means (28-10, 1 NC) is 10-7, 1 NC from the UFC and is coming off of a TKO win over Ricky Rainey that snapped a two-fight split decision losing skid. At 34 he’s started to age but revealed from the Rainey battle his remarkable abilities continue to be top notch. Price (12-2, 1 NC) is currently 4-2, 1 NC at the UFC and is coming off of a fast TKO loss to Abdul Razak Alhassan which was a disappointing follow-up to his barbarous KO win over Randy Brown on the summertime. What a fantastic fight this is involving Means and Price because it is a battle between two men who will finish the fight on the feet and on the floor. I can see this one going either way, and this might be a surprise to people who have been after me for many years, but I had really slightly lean towards Price here just because of his age benefit and the reality Means was in so many wars. The opening line must be shut, but I would probably peg Price as a slight favorite at open.
Alex Morono vs. Zak Ottow, UFC Fight Night 146
Welterweights Alex Morono and Zak Ottow may also meet on this card. Morono (15-5, 1 NC) is 4-2, 1 NC at the UFC and conquered Kenan Song in a”Fight of the Night” functionality his last time out. Ottow (17-6) is 4-3 at the UFC and is coming from a split decision win over Dwight Grant. This is a really evenly-matched connection between two men in the middle of the bunch at 170lbs who have so far been inconsistent in their UFC livelihood. I’ve been somewhat more impressed with Morono inside the Octagon so I’d favor him just a tad here, but on paper it’s a close matchup and that I anticipate the opening line to be near a Select’em.
Louis Smolka vs. Matt Schnell, UFC Fight Night 146
And finally, Louis Smolka and Matt Schnell will proceed up to bantamweight and compete with this card. Smolka (15-5) recently forced his return to the UFC using a submission win over Mudaerji. All-time Smolka has a 6-5 record from the UFC and is currently riding a four-fight win streak complete in MMA. Schnell (11-4) is 2-2 in the UFC and conquered Naoki Inoue and Marco Beltran in his last two outings. Though Schnell has appeared better recently, Smolka is the talented fighter and is proven fighting at 135lbs. I would have to favor Smolka to win this particular fight, along with the fact it is not taking place at flyweight is another sign the branch is going to be closed down this season.
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MMA ODDS AND ENDS FOR WEDNESDAY: FORMER UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPION CHRIS WEIDMAN INJURED AND OFF UFC 199

Former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman off and Injured UFC 199 Based on reports from FloCombat and MMAJunkie, Chris Weidman is out of the UFC 199 headlining bout against Luke Rockhold.

TalkMMA reported that the information on Twitter. This is actually the fourth time Weidman has been forced to pull out of a championship bout. Chris Weidman posted this on his Facebook this afternoon explaining the harm. UFC 199 takes place. Here’s an updated look at the card Luke Rockhold (15-2) vs. TBA Dominick Cruz (21-1) vs. Urijah Faber (33-8) Max Holloway (15-3) vs. Ricardo Lamas (16-4) Dan Henderson (31-14) vs. Hector Lombard (34-5-1, 2NC) Dustin Poirier (19-4) vs. Bobby Green (23-6) B.J. Penn (16-10-2) vs. Cole Miller (21-9, 1NC) Brian Ortega (10-0, 1NC) vs. Clay Guida (32-16) Beneil Dariush (12-2) vs. James Vick (9-0) Jessica Penne (12-3) vs. Jessica Andrade (13-5) Sean Strickland (17-1) vs. Tom Breese (10-0) Jonathan Wilson (7-0) vs. Luiz Henrique da Silva (10-0) Kevin Casey (9-4, 2NC) vs. Elvis Mutapcic (15-4) Dong Hyun Kim (13-7-3) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (5-2) Undefeated RFA bantamweight Matthew Lopez matches Rani Yahya in UFC Fight Night 91 UFC officials declared Tuesday that RFA bantamweight Matthew Lopez has signed together with the advertising and will take on Rani Yahya in UFC Sioux Falls. Lopez (8-0) boasts seven stoppage victories in eight career spells. He heads into this matchup off his fifth-straight first round victory including a win over Eli Finn in RFA 3 in his final struggle. Prior to this matchup I talked with Lopez about his MMA career. Yahya (21-8) heads to the matchup off a split-decision victory over Masanori Kanehara, that has capped off back to back wins for the Brazilian. UFC Fight Night 91 occurs July 13 at Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, S.D. Here’s an updated look in the card. Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson Tim Boetsch vs. Josh Samman Ben Nguyen vs. Louis Smolka Keita Nakamura vs. Kyle Noke Alexey Oleinik vs. Daniel Omielanczuk Scott Holtzman vs. Cody Pfister Devin Clark vs. Alex Nicholson Matthew Lopez vs. Rani Yahya UFC signs Jordan Rinaldi, matches Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night 88 With Diego Ferreira recently removed from UFC Fight Night 88 due a potential USADA anti-doping breach, the advertising has signed Jordan Rinaldi who currently meets Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night 88. Rinaldi (12-4) heads into this short notice matchup onto a five-fight winning series. He is coming off a second round submission success over Lashawn Alcocks at Fight Laboratory 52. Trujillo (14-6) is coming off a first round submission victory over Tony Sims back in January. UFC Fight Night 88 happens May 29 in Mandalay Bay Events Center at Sin City. Here’s an updated look in the card. MAIN CARD (FOX Sports 1, 9 p.m. ET) Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda Lorenz Larkin vs. Jorge Masvidal Josh Burkman vs. Paul Felder PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 7 p.m. ET) Jessica Eye vs. Sara McMann Jordan Rinaldi vs. Abel Trujillo Jake Collier vs. Alberto Pereira Uda Shane Campbell vs. Erik Koch PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6 p.m. ET) Bryan Caraway vs. Aljamain Sterling Chris DeLaRocha vs. Adam Milstead Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic booked for UFC on FOX 20 at Chicago UFC officials also declared on Tuesday that heavyweights Francis Ngannou and Bojan Mihajlovic are set to face off at UFC on FOX 20. Ngannou (7-1 ) heads into this matchup off back-to-back knockout victories over Luis Henrique and Curtis Blaydes. He has won six straight fights, seven of which have come by stoppage. Mihajlovic (10-3) makes his UFC debut and is coming into this fight on a 10-fight win series. It should be noted that these fighters were originally slated to fight at UFC Fight Night 86 in April, but the European fighter ended up withdrawing from the card. UFC on FOX 20 occurs July 23 at United Center in Chicago. Here’s an updated look at the card. Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez James Moontasri vs. Alex Oliveira George Sullivan vs. Hector Urbina Ryan LaFlare vs. Alexander Yakovlev Luis Henrique vs. Dmitry Smolyakov Kailin Curran vs. Felice Herrig Tony Martin vs. Michel Prazeres Frankie Saenz vs. Eddie Wineland Bojan Mihajlovic vs. Francis Ngannou Lookin’ for a Fight: Episode 5

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JOSE ALDO VS. ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI ADDED TO UFC 237

The UFC matchmakers are busy sending out contracts. In the current MMA odds and ends I will present my thoughts on two fresh spells for UFC 237, such as a potential No. 1 competition fight in the featherweight division, plus my first reactions to 2 new bouts fights for UFC Russia.
Jose Aldo vs. Alexander Volkanovski, UFC 237
Featherweight contenders Jose Aldo and Alexander Volkanovski are set to battle at UFC 237 at a potential title eliminator. The card takes place May 11 at Jeunesse Arena at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and news of the bout was first shown by MMA journalist Farah Hannoun. Aldo (28-4) is 10-3 at the UFC and is coming from back-to-back knockout wins over Renato Moicano and Jeremy Stephens. After a rough stretch which saw him get pumped three times in four fights, Aldo appears better than ever and can be creating a late-career run for the belt that he held for years. Volkanovski (19-1) is 6-0 at the UFC and in his final departure brutally knocked out Chad Mendes. Many consider him a future featherweight champion, and this fight should tell us a lot about that. This is a huge fight, rather than an easy one to predict. Aldo will probably be favored because of his name worth and Octagon experience, but Volkanovski has looked incredible from the UFC and should be a live dog in this bout.
Thiago Alves vs. Laureano Staropoli, UFC 237
Veteran welterweight Thiago Alves returns at UFC 237 if he chooses on potential Laureano Staropoli. MMAFighting.com broke the information. Alves (23-13) is 15-10 complete in the UFC and most recently won a controversial split decision over Max Griffin. Staropoli (8-1) is riding a six-fight win series and in his UFC debut won a”Battle of the Night” bonus for his conclusion win over Hector Aldana. Now you have to fade Alves and I’d prefer the 26-year-old Staropoli to win this bout. But considering he’s an unknown, it’s possible he’ll be an underdog in this bout, so keep your eye out for him.
Sultan Aliev vs. Keita Nakamura, UFC Fight Night 149
Welterweights Sultan Aliev and Keita Nakamura are set to battle UFC Fight Night 149, occurring April 20 at Yubileyny Sports Palace at St. Petersburg, Russia. Nakamura replaced the injured Emil Weber Meek on relatively short notice for this bout. Aliev (14-3) is just 1-2 in the UFC and most recently was completed by Warlley Alves. Nakamura (34-9-2, 1 NC) is 4-6 overall from the UFC, including a 4-3 mark in his second stint inside the Octagon. In his last fight, he edged out a split decision over Salim Touahri. Both guys will be on the chopping block with a reduction, and this battle looks like a close one. I would prefer Nakamura slightly simply because of his durability, but it could go either way.
Abdul-Kerim Edilov vs. Devin Clark, UFC Fight Night 149
A light heavyweight bout between Abdul Kerim-Edilov and Devin Clark is also slated for UFC Fight Night 149. Edilov (17-4) has not fought as a September 2017 knockout win over Bojan Mihaljovic and contains just 1 fight since 2015. But he’s only 27-years-old and is now riding an 11-fight win streak dating back to 2013. He is a bit of a wild card in 205lbs, but overall looks like a promising prospect if he could remain healthy and stay out of trouble with USADA. Clark (9-3) is 3-3 at the UFC and is coming from a barbarous TKO loss to Aleksandar Rakic. Now it is simply very hard to trust that the chin of Clark, and also a hard-hitter such as Edilov will be favored to beat him in this fight.
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MAKING THE MOST OF UFC UNDERDOG BETTING

Betting on combined martial arts, and also the UFC in particular, should be very appealing to folks who are attracted to gambling on underdogs. Because the game utilizes moneyline betting it’s far from rare to find underdogs heading off at quite high potential returns, and upsets are a significant part of the sport. Obviously, you can not simply blindly bet on all underdogs and aspire to earn a profit — it can’t be that easy. There are some situations in which you’re a lot more inclined to find a potentially profitable underdog than others. Here are five such situations to be on the lookout for:
A favourite drawing enormous public activity — The UFC does a really good job of encouraging their celebrities and making their best fighters look very great. If those fighters struggle, then, it’s extremely common to see these go off as really heavy favorites. A good deal of UFC bettors are just casual lovers, so they will be far more on reputation than anything else, and that means they’ll be heavily drawn to the favorites. Many times, though, the underdog isn’t nearly as outclassed since the odds would imply they are. When a heavy favorite is drawing a significant majority of those stakes on a fight then you can be confident in many cases that the chances are higher than they otherwise should be on this fighter. That in turn means that the underdog likely faces more attractive odds than you might otherwise expect. The underdog won’t necessarily be attractive just because they’re facing better odds than they probably should, but in the event that you’re able to normally make a situation that the underdog has a solid chance then gambling on them could become even more appealing at inflated chances.
An underdog with strong history outside UFC — Most UFC bettors aren’t general MMA bettors, plus they don’t follow the game out the UFC pay-per0view and broadcast events. Though there are fewer and fewer other top level organizations on the market that are still some very good fighters toiling outside of the UFC. If a fighter comes to the UFC to fight for the first time they often will not get a good deal of admiration from bettors — especially if they’re contrary to a UFC veteran — unless they’re heavily encouraged. If you do your homework, even however, you may discover that the fighter is actually rather remarkable and more than capable of giving his opponent a tough match on the greatest stage.

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