While it won’t be the largest battle sports event of the summer, UFC 214 is certainly the biggest MMA event of the entire year. On top of the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two additional title bouts, contenders and entertaining battles throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a peek at where the gambling odds have moved for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were published and he provides his ideas on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favored the first time these two fought and a few naively expected the lineup could be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal problems, run-in with USADA and layoff has not had the impact anticipated on the line. It is hard to blame bettors either, Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their first meeting, and Jones won every component of that first fight. Expect something similar – if not dominant – this time around.
Irrespective of how badly he takes his groundwork, Jones is the kind of fighter that rises to the occasion like others. He, this is the ultimate event. Cormier is his main rival and he has the chance to regain the belt he never dropped against him. That combination will lead to a tremendous performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance at the division.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Much like the main event, this line has not seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that is not hard to believe. There’s a contingent of individuals who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia with the first punch he throws. They could very well be right. The opposing side of the coin is made up of those who believe that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and only dominate with his grappling. They are right as well. Woodley’s tendency to back himself against the cage and perform counter-puncher is going to be his demise here. Maia is becoming so good at going into the clinch if not under stress he ought to be able to create Woodley miss after. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that’s a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s ability to initiate Jiu-Jitsu exchanges without hitting traditional takedowns is next to none (he’s perfected the single leg to rear take) and Woodley being the kind of man who likes to explode out of places will only hurt him once that happens. It is kind of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an extra buck (+275 at Thursday morning), since Woodley will not be able to endure 25 moments of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wishes to. The other option is probably a quick Woodley KO (+350 for your champ at Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This fight being bettable is dependent on what kind of bettor you are. If you have no difficulty throwing a massive line in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at almost -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are nearly sure things. If that is not really your style, neither will be placing nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a drama is based on Evinger’s strength. She’s taken damage in many of her struggles and persevered and she probably won’t come back to beat Cyborg in this one after a rough beginning, there is an outside shot she can survive five minutes. However, even the costs for”Fight Starts Round two” and Cyborg Round two have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450, respectively), making them less attractive even to someone who is always on the search for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It is a shame this fight is occurring after both men have seemingly passed their peak concerning durability, since a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best are a thing to behold. This fight will come down to distance direction and in-fight decisions. Lawler wants to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outdoors. The difficulty for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get inside and at the point, anticipate Cerrone to be much too willing to oblige him that the war he is searching for. While that will give us the type of fight we want to see, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.
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