This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, therefore I think that it’s a good week to focus more on money games. The most important GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That is the best one to pursue in my view. I will have a few LUs that I put into a great deal of GPPs hoping I will win all of them, but I won’t have lots of LUs in complete this week. Other than that, almost all of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong could be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe that is a struggle the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home country. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced above him, with substantially smaller chances of winning ITD. I believe that you may make a situation to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about possession. I think this is a good spot to lock at a win and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins that we are able to afford. More often than maybe 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Normally when there is worth like that on an underdog it makes them among the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think both of these guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I have seen from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense this weekend in a fight which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If both of those guys get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I am imagining Coulter will be the reduced owned man of both and that’s what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think virtually every favorite will find a win. I believe that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he does have a very clear route to victory and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power to be able to KO anyone on Earth. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st place lineup, especially if it’s an early KO. From the first fight between both of these guys Blaydes was able to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up pretty quickly each time. If he is able to get up like that again here, then I don’t find any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is the scarier man on the feet and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long periods of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a card, I really don’t like many underdogs I think he’s the best you to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t enjoy targeting at least one of these ladies in the 9k selection. I believe they should all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would want at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I think she has to get a finish to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and only 1 of the wins didn’t go to decision. She only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anybody a championship. In addition, I think Zhang and Xiaonan have greater odds of winning than Mueller does this that is why I chose her over both as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week however when I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on among them.
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