The NFL is regarded among the toughest sports leagues on earth to disability and with good reason. Every week, there is numerous examples of bets which seem like absolute locks, however for whatever reason, they fall flat and suck money out bettor’s bankrolls from the procedure.
Early in my career covering the sport gambling landscape, it became incredibly apparent that there’s no such thing as a lock especially when it has to do with the NFL. If you dig deep enough, but there is a handful of areas in the NFL who are extremely reliable over the years.
Happily , I have access to Decades Value Of Data and discovered some extremely profitable gaming situations which may hopefully give us a bit of head start in the 2019 NFL season.
Will some of them fall flat? Yes. Can some be continuing? Absolutely. Will the betting nerds of the net say this guide is useless because trends offer no predictive value? Now that right there is??a lock!
Whether you purchase trends or not, these are all spots that continue to cover out, so let’s dive in and explore if there is logic to back these up:
Call it a Super Bowl hangover if you’d like, but this awful listing for Super Bowl losers at Week 1 of the subsequent season is likely the end consequence of them simply being overvalued according to their prior year’s outcome. There’s a lot of turnover in the NFL out of season-to-season and many early year spreads are carrying last year’s info into consideration.
This is normally a premier matchup for its opening week of this season using the Super Bowl loser paired up with a decent opponent, and in these 19 games, the Super Bowl loser was an underdog four occasions. Thus, yeah, you get the stage, the Super Bowl runner-up is often overrated early in the year based on their reputation from the year before.
Once you can bet it: In Week 1 of the season… or to be more specific, it is possible to fade the Rams Who Are At -3 In Carolina.
Almost the entirety of this wonderful streak in primetime has been around Pete Carroll’s view while Russell Wilson was under center for a large chunk of these matches. We can not properly measure inspiration, but it’s entirely possible that these are the type of games which the long tail head coach/QB combo”get up” for. The simple fact that the Seahawks are among the most consistent teams??in this decade also helps.
As for Wilson”getting up”?? for playing under the bright lights at primetime, consider that his career QB rating at night is 7.3 points greater than his normally late-afternoon starts. In addition, he has a much better completion percentage, a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, and above all, a much better win percentage (81.4percent versus 65%) at night vs the late day.
Here’s a breakdown of Seattle at nighttime games in a few specific situations:
- Night games at home: 15-3-2 ATS since November 2017
- Nighttime games as an underdog: 11-2 ATS since December 2006
- Nighttime games in December: 10-0 ATS since December 2011
- Night matches vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS since December 2006
When you can bet it: Week 5 TNF hosting the??Rams, Week 10 MNF at San Francisco, Week 12 SNF at Philly, Week 13 MNF hosting Minnesota, Week 14 SNF in LA Rams
What a humiliation for Bills Mafia. Some might argue that this tendency doesn’t matter because it goes into well prior to the Brady-Belichick era, but it is actually a much better number if you tighten it to start in 2000 if Belichick became the Patriots’ head coach, as they have gone 14-4-1 ATS in this span.
So, what happens? Is this just due to the Patriots’ historic domination of the league and the Bills’ constant turnover in heart coach and QB which makes them one of their league’s most elite dumpster fires? Mainly, yes.
Specific the Belichick-era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit successes in Buffalo, but they have just become a double-digit favored in several of those 19 games. They’ve been regularly undervalued and their league-best 60.8% ATS covering percentage over the last ten years is evidence of this.?? But, here is the thing, they have a winning ATS listing across heaps of distinct areas, which is nuts considering they are definitely the most elite dynasty in history.
It was actually a struggle to select only one situation in this article to emphasize New England. Check out the other popular spots for the Patriots in the bottom of the Report.
When to bet it: Sunday, September 29 (Week 4)
This was an especially major money maker during the 2018 year when the home team went 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights. I think that it’s incredibly obvious the home team has this edge on Thursday nights, as the street team is traveling to a short week, putting them in an embarrassing position with less time to prepare while recovering from the last week at a resort.
Extending this trend even further, the home team went 71-53-6 ATS (57.3%) on TNF during the previous ten decades, therefore this has a very long history of being a profitable spot. When in doubt on Thursday nights, then consider the house team.
When to wager it: I shouldn’t need to tell you this
At first appearance, this sounds more coincidental than anything else, but Dallas has performed much differently offensively on the road the previous four seasons. In each of the four Decades, there is a Fairly Major disparity within their home/away scoring averages:
- 2018: 7 fewer things averaged in road games
- 2016: 5.8 fewer things averaged in street games
- 2015: 3.9 fewer things averaged in street games
We also have a similar pattern on protection with the staff doing much better on that side of the ball outside of Dallas in 3 of the last four seasons:
- 2017: 6 fewer things permitted on the road
- 2016: 2.8 fewer points allowed on the road
- 2015: 10 fewer things permitted on the road
Going back to if this tendency starts on September 20, 2015, we have noticed Cowboys’ home matches have an average combined score of 46.10, although the average combined score in their street games falls significantly to 38.84.
Is the transition out of the turf in Jerry’s World to additional playing surfaces that the difference maker here? It seems to be an obvious motive, but maybe their offensive groundwork for road games is not on par with their prep for home games.
In any event, keep your eye on their street totals throughout this season. Each matchup differs, but when their O/U number for road games is on level with their averages at house matches, I would strongly lean with this trend continued.
It is no denying that this record coincides with the very first period of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He’s got a reputation as a unbelievable game planner and excellent coaches have a tendency to understand teams in their branch very well.
The intriguing thing about those games is that the 3 ATS loses all arrived vs the Raiders, while KC is still a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 matches in Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.
1 concern??this season is that is the best Chiefs team coming to a season in the Andy Reid-era, so they can face greater than normal spreads, so at least early in the season.
Short on time or recovering from a Dark Friday fistfight at WalMart and no time to handicap the NFL Thanksgiving games? Only choose the favorites and you’re most likely to walk off with a gain. Including the past two seasons when the preferred covered the spread in all six matches, faves are on a complete tear on Thanksgiving at 31-11 ATS as 2005. And this trend isn’t only limited to the 2000s as favorites covering Thanksgiving is a long-standing tradition as they have gone 53-29 ATS (64.5%) as 1984.
You’d think home teams could have a substantial advantage here, as laid out in the TNF trend above, but house teams were favored in just more than half of those matches as 2005, and went 18-23 ATS.
In addition, these matches are synonymous with ass-kickings, similar to the ones that we watch at WalMart on Black Friday, as 32 of??51 games as 2000 were determined by double-digits.
This season’s Thanksgiving games include that the Bears in Detroit, the Cowboys hosting both the Greens as well as the Saints seeing Atlanta.
Some groups have been slow starters and require a couple of weeks to begin along with the Saints are at the top of the listing of early-season underperformers.
In 2018, we saw them choke in Week 1 and lose to the Bucs as a 10-point favored in the home. The next week, in a different home game, they barely snuck by the Hugh Jackson and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favourite. Then they went on to cover the spread in nine straight matches after the tough start.
In 2017, people saw them fail to cover in the initial fourteen days, then move to cover the spread in six of their next seven games. In 2016they split the initial two, then covered five of their next six. In 2015they didn’t cover in their first two matches, then coated in four of their next five.
The most important thing is that Sean Peyton has done a bad job at getting off to a good beginning and Drew Brees hasn’t been sharp early in seasons, recognized by his own career September QB evaluation of 94.7 which is his bottom of monthly.
When to wager itWith the Saints preferred by a touchdown in Week 1 On MNF Vs The Texans, along with a Week two rematch of last year’s NFC Title game in which players are sure to play-up the revenge angle, these could be prime spots to once more evaporate New Orleans in early season games.
Pittsburgh has been playing down to poorer competition for nearly two decades and has been especially awful in this place recently, moving 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points because the onset of this 2017 season. Most notably, they have been atrocious as a double-digit road favorite in this period, going 1-10 ATS.
Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 so many of this inefficiency as a major favorite is about his view. They have still been an outright winner in almost all of these matches, going 22-5 beneath Tomlin, however they definitely underestimate weaker opponents, making them a great fade as a huge favorite.
Pittsburgh will not have as many chances as a double favored this season, particularly now that the Browns are more competitive — they have been a double-digit favourite eight occasions vs the Browns in Tomlin’s tenure as head coach — but they could find themselves as a enormous favorite in Week 4 at home to the Bengals and hosting the Dolphins in Week 8.
Thus, besides usually sucking the last ten years, another thing these teams have in common is acting in a really different climate. It’s probably the most apparent thing to disability, with warm weather clubs playing outside of their comfort zones from the colder weather , however it appears like oddsmakers are not accounting enough to it.
Miami is the most intense case out of those three Florida teams within this spot due to playing in a branch with the teams which are strongly affected by winter conditions. Going all of the way back to 1992, they are just 3-10 ATS in New England in December and January games. Since 1990, they’re 4-9-1 ATS at Buffalo in these months, while they have managed to move 4-3 ATS in the Jets since 1996.
There is a tiny bit of grey area here since I didn’t look at climate conditions to each of the groups in those matches, however warm-weather city clubs that perform outside are generally a dreadful stake when playing in cold weather.
Since 2014, there’s been 82 games played with cold temperatures under 32??F (0?? C). Nineteen of these games included warm-weather city clubs who play outside (Jacksonville, Miami, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Oakland and San Francisco) and they moved 6-13 ATS.
Here is just another piece of reliable betting spots Through the Years:
- Patriots: 35-14??ATS??at home within their last 49 games
- Patriots: 16-5-1 ATS following a loss as October 13, 2013
- Patriots: 11-4-2 in divisional home games as October 2013
- Raiders: 4-21 SU in last 25 matches with 1 PM ET begin times
- Colts: 1-10 ATS in continue their 11 Week 1 matches
- Browns: 2-19 SU in their last 21 at Pittsburgh
- Saints vs Bucs: UNDER at 15 of past 21 matchups
- Lions vs Vikings: UNDER in 16 of last 22 matchups
- Seahawks: 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs 49ers
- Panthers: 19-5-1 ATS following a road loss
- London Games: Favorite is 15-9 ATS
- Texans: 6-18-1 ATS at nighttime matches because 2012
- Redskins: 5-16 ATS in night games since 2013
- Broncos: 75-20-2 SU at home at September because 1970
- Titans:??7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 off-road games
For more information like this each week during the NFL season, Read Me On Twitter. Good luck this season, also as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAER!
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